Hey Mark. What amazing program you have. anyway im up in Falcon lake Manitoba, Canada. a hundred miles east of Winnipeg MB. Anyway last winter we had our warmest winter on record. I just figured it was from a very strong El Nino. but you say it wasnt that strong of a El Nino? Also we are on the 15th month of above weather. I know you dont focus much on Canada, but could you throw me any thoughts? Also it just looks like too much warm water everywhere i look on your maps. I think the La Nina is slowly going to be a thing of the past. Also the climate up here use to be Fuggen Awful! Like 10 months winter & 2 months late fall. 😂. But just keeps getting warmer and warmer! Fine with me. Anyway Im very glad i stumbled across your great show. Cheers Mate. Coop.

Most Excellent ¿

know its early but u think we will a La Nina by the summer or fall 2029-2030 by then

Thanks!

Just wanted to chime in on MJO and phases that seem to teleconnect best for troughing off North America and storminess for California. You mention the area "above" where the MJO has established is where the active weather generally forms and this is true for areas near or in close proximity to the MJO episode but from what I have learned/observed and what rainfall composites show for California is that the Indian ocean phase or phases 2 and 3 have the most forcing for a wetter pattern to form over the west coast of North America or the California state in particular with generally a more negative PNA and AO signal. Than as the MJO moves into the west Pacific ridging forms as the energy transfer tends to create either a rex/omega block in the central north Pacific or a strong ridge off the California coast forms that pushes storms into the PNW or even Alaska and Northern Canada. Furthermore, the MJO tends to often weaken substantially as it enters the central equatorial Pacific as it encounters stronger easterlies and cooler water and continues to be rather weak until it enters the Indian ocean and picks back up. In other words, the MJO seems to be most pronounced and has the most teleconnective forcing and influence on the North Pacific jet stream profile while in phases 2-6 and than phase 7-8 and phase 1 is more of a wild card and can go either way but tends to not have as much influence on the ridge axis and break down of the north pacific high. Nevertheless, climate chaos and many other factors like PV stability, ENSO regime, QBO wind direction, PDO phase all seem to impact how the MJO influences California weather and seems the positive PDO phase with neutral ENSO around time periods like the mid 90's (1995 exception with cold PDO phase hiccup and positive ENSO regime) the MJO fueled the North Pacific jet stream more so than this cold PDO La Nina regime with singular strong El Nino episodes here and there that seems to be the pattern the last 14 years or so.

Hey Mark! Welcome back. Have you ever looked into doing a Fast Fourier transform on the sine wave of last 50 or so years of the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies? Maybe you could see the biggest frequency present and match it up to something thats been just a head of the Nino3.4 SST anomalies to help predict it? Just a crazy thought haha

Welcome back! Great forecast tonight, thanks so much. The surf has been good here in the islands lately, but tomorrow it is suppose to be bigger, well about 8-10 feet so Sunset Beach should be good. I hope that you are getting some good surf there as well. I guess Ocean Beach should be good from the gulf swell.

There he is. Great forecast as always. Thanks mark.

A touch of la niña might actually be beneficial! thanks for your hard work.

I knpw we r fixing to go into a weak La Nina probably lasting till spring of 25 I know its early but u think we will a El NIno by the summer or fall by then