admin
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast (Episode #517) for the week starting Sunday, March 10th, 2024.
Video includes the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast and the El Nino forecast.
Click the Thumbs Up icon if you liked the video.
Subscribe to get an automatic notification when we post a new video.
If you have question or an opinion – even if it’s contrary to this weeks thesis – post a comment. We try to reply to every comment.
Contributions always welcome. Use the ‘$ Thanks’ button to donate a few dollars. It is appreciated.
And visit our website at www.Stormsurf.com for all the details, including wave models, weather models, snow models, surf forecasts and so much more: http://www.stormsurf.com
Thanks for watching!
Contents of This Video
0:00 – Introduction
1:22 – Significant Wave Height
1:51 – Current Conditions (Buoy Analysis)
4:48 – Significant Wave Height Hindcast (NPac)
6:49 – Jetstream Forecast
10:06 – Surface Pressure/Wind Forecast
12:07 – Significant Wave Height Forecast (NPac/SPac)
13:32 – Hawaii/California Local Wind Forecast
15:44 – California Rain Forecast
18:37 – Snow Forecast
20:56 – Select Location Surf Forecasts
23:31 – Long Term Outlook
23:52 – Current Pacific Wind Anomalies (TAO)
27:00 – 14 day Pacific Zonal Wind Anomaly Forecast (GFS)
29:21 – OLR Forecast and Phase Diagrams
32:57 – 40 Day Upper Level Precipitation Potential
34:07 – 30 day CFS 850mb Zonal Wind Anomaly
35:43 – 3 month CFS 850mb Zonal Wind Anomaly, MJO and Pressure Bias Forecast
39:40 – Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (TAO)
42:25 – Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (GODAS)
43:14 – Pentad Sea Level Anomalies
44:44 – Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies (1 year)
45:33 – Upper Ocean Heat Volume (1 year)
46:16 – Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly
47:04 – 7 day SST Trend
47:48 – Global SST Anomaly Overview
48:30 – Nino 1.2 & 3.4 SST Anomaly Trend
49:40 – Weekly OISST Temperature Values
50:27 – SST Anomaly Coverage (1 year)
51:16 – Southern Oscillation Index and 30 Day Graph
55:20 – CFS Nino3.4 SST Anomaly Forecast
56:58 – Forecast Summary
1:00:30 – Credits
source
Why can't we just have a nice neutral year of 2025-2026
I’m now of the thinking that there was an active MJO in December 2026, an inactive phase in January 2027, and another active phase in February 2027, but I didn’t know about this at the time.)
These videos are great. I'm sailing from Mexico to Hawaii in a few months, then Hawaii to Alaska in the summer. Your content really helps me understand whats going on in the Eastern Pacific. Ill be curious to see what my weather router says for my departure date and see how it fits with your explanations.
2026-27 (Not a bad winter for CA on the whole, but featured a multi-week dry spell in January 2027, after a promising start in December—even though the rain picked up again in the February-March timeframe, I was looking forward to tons of fresh snow in my local mountains when I went up there with my church group during MLK weekend. We instead got melting “chocolate snow with lemon shaved ice flavoring” that was sparse/patchy, dirty, slippery, and too hard for making snowballs and snowmen—very disappointing. I’m now of the thinking that there was an active MJO in December, an inactive phase in January, and another active phase in February, but I didn’t know about this at the time.)
New drinking game – every time something "paints the picture" take a drink!
There is a major tornado threat today, 24 days before eclipse totality, right underneath the projected path.
Thanks!
Thanks!
for the subsurface temp anomalies, what is the baseline that is being compared against?
Hey mark – good meeting you the other week out at mavs. Do you think that this good pattern of active N pac jetstream is because of how late ENSO peaked this year? Thanks.
We are one week away from the 3 week period before the eclipse. Where will the MJO be by next Monday, Mark? Barely in the West Pacific by next Thursday? Then, it continues east, and we still have over 2 weeks before the eclipse? Trust me, we are going to see a big surprise. Everything is about to wake up again in a hurry. Then, by the time the MJO gets into the Atlantic it'll be during the 3 week period after the eclipse which is when I suspect both tornados in the southeast and more noreasters and blizzards in the northeast. Winter is about to make a rude come back.
2010-2011 La Niña as well the Iceland Eruption in June 2010 made for most epic snows in Sierra’s at one point dumping 154” in 7 days in 2011, most snow I’ve seen before Thanksgiving 2010. Some might suggest that the La Niña was here two weeks ago.
Really enjoy the channel, wonderimg if there is any chance you could cover oregon surf conditions?
Thanks Mark!
Why can't we just have a nice neutral year. Why's it always either LN or EL?
Howzit Mark! 2 points: #1 love the use of the term "empirical evidence" we definitely need more of that. #2 with major nations finally abiding to the Paris Agreement, China's industrial slowdown and subsequent industrial redistribution across Asia, isn't it likely that there is some influence on worldwide climate patterns? Call me crazy, but if I visualize the analogy of a glass of water with ice and the foggy cloud that forms on top (upper atmosphere)when its surroundings are hot, can't those patterns be shifting/morphing? If so then we are entering a new era climatically speaking. It's a better of finding where those temperature gradients are more extreme. Higher latitudes? S Hemi?
Super looking forward to that pdo deep dive video, whenever it happens!
Why is the CFS showing a Super La Niña event
If it somehow comes true then that would be the first
Aloha Mark Kelly great forecast, thanks so much! I am stoked to see that we will get some good waves on Thursday as today was small. It looks like San Francisco will have a good swell over the next few days so I hope you get some good waves. Thanks again and have fun 🙂
Thank you as always brother!
Thanks!
Mark. For those of us in the TSE cult who are planning lives around the events of April 8th, any recommendations on a decent source for cloud cover forecasts for 4-5 days out? So we can get the edge on the masses?
Hey Mark. 🤙
Good fishing in Chile and Peru….